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Estimated Value and Confidence

Modelled price with a probable range

An estimated value is an automated valuation: a price produced by a statistical model, not by a valuer. Propbar's model reads sold prices for comparable homes nearby, then adjusts for this property's type, size and attributes. The range beside it is the confidence interval, the band the model expects the true price to sit within. Sold prices come from a different register in each UK nation.

What This Means

This figure is a cross-check on the asking price, not a basis for your offer. No one has been inside this property to produce it. Condition, damp, a new kitchen or a botched extension are all unpriced. The range matters more than the headline number. A wide range means thin evidence, not that the home is hard to sell. Confidence tracks how tight that range is. This is one of the few things on this report that lenders and insurers price directly: your lender's own valuation, not this one, is what your loan is sized against.

Score Ranges

Low confidence

Under 34

The range is wide, often from few comparable sales or unusual property features.

Medium confidence

34 to 66

The range reflects the normal variation between comparable properties nearby.

High confidence

67 to 100

The range is tight and backed by good comparable sales close by.

Practical Advice

  • Ask the estate agent which sold comparables set the asking price, with their dates and floor areas.
  • Instruct a RICS Registered Valuer for a Red Book valuation if you need a defensible figure for probate, tax or a dispute.
  • Ask your surveyor to add a market valuation to your RICS Home Survey Level 2 or 3.
  • Tell your mortgage broker this range before you offer, so a down-valuation does not surprise your deposit.
  • Ask the seller for invoices for any work done since the last sale.

Key Points

  • A £400,000 estimate shown with a £370,000 to £430,000 range puts 90% odds on a £60,000 window, wider than a 10% deposit on the same home.
  • A lender's valuer down-values a £400,000 purchase to £380,000. On a 90% mortgage the lender advances £342,000 rather than £360,000, and the buyer finds £18,000 more or renegotiates.
  • The RICS Red Book Global Standards, effective 31 January 2025, allow automated valuation models in valuation work but require human oversight, so an automated figure alone is not a Red Book valuation.

Additional Information

The card splits what the model could verify from what it could not. Floor area, bedrooms, EPC band and tenure appear as verified wherever those records exist. Internal condition falls under Not Verified whenever no photographs are available. That is common for a home not listed recently.

Data Source: Propbar automated valuation model; HM Land Registry, Price Paid Data (England and Wales); Registers of Scotland (Scotland); Land & Property Services (Northern Ireland)
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